Economic and mathematical estimation of oil and gas field by the method of real options with the risk factors application
The mathematical method, which allows to consider the forecasted changes in the external factors, and also the possibility to react on them and to make the corresponding decisions at the stage of the estimation of project is considered. The Black - Scholes inancial model gives the possibility to determine the forecast optional cost of sites with the specific portion of risk. At that the degree of the authenticity of the estimation of oil reserves, the oil prices and expenditures forecast, and also the possibility of the flexible reaction of the company to changes in these factors is taken into account. After the overestimation of the investment portfolio the decision can be accepted about the retention of those sites, whose optional cost proved to be high, and the putting up the remaining sites for sale on the appropriate cost.